Masayoshi Son says AI will cost $5tn a year by 2040, and calls bubble talk absurd

What happened

Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank, projected that building artificial intelligence will cost $5 trillion annually by 2040. Speaking at SoftBank’s corporate conference in Tokyo, Son laid out a long-term forecast for the financial scale of AI development, equating it to nearly 800 trillion yen each year. He dismissed concerns that this figure sounded like a bubble or an exaggeration, standing firmly behind his claim without detailing how the spending would break down.

Why it matters

This forecast puts a concrete, eye-popping price tag on AI investment and operations in the coming decades, forcing investors, governments, and operators to consider the financial scale of the AI race. A $5 trillion annual burn rate would dwarf today’s technology spending, emphasizing the resource intensity needed for AI infrastructure, compute, data, and talent. It pressures global markets to prepare for massive capital requirements, potentially challenging existing budget models for companies and nations heavily invested in AI. Son’s rejection of “bubble” talk also signals that he expects sustainable, ongoing expenditure instead of a short-lived hype cycle, raising the bar for AI as a core, foundational industry driving long-term demand.

What to watch next

Watch how SoftBank and other large investors adjust funding strategies to meet this multi-trillion-dollar scale. Tracking where the capital flows — whether to cloud infrastructure, AI research, hardware, or new services — will reveal who wins in this expansive buildout. Also, watch for shifts in AI project priorities or cost optimization efforts as stakeholders face mounting pressure to justify massive ongoing expenses. If spending trends start to slow or diverge from Son’s forecast, it could reshape expectations about AI’s trajectory and valuation.

AI Quick Briefs Editorial Desk